Montreal City Weblog

Kate 14:35 on 2020-03-23 Permalink Reply  

• dwgs 14:46 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  It’s the 5.3% positive test rating that’s scary, that’s twice any other province.

• Matt 14:56 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  During Legault’s press conference today, he (or Horacio Arruda? I forget) explained that the percentage of positive results will be higher in Quebec because of who the province decided to test at first. At first they would only test people who traveled in the last 14 days AND exhibited COVID-19 symptoms. People with just one or the other of those conditions were not tested. Had they tested anyone with a cough or fever or anyone who traveled, then we’d have a much lower percentage of positive tests. Now anyone can get tested, so in the coming days we should see the numbers shift and give a clearer picture.

• vasi 14:58 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  Apparently the reason is we’re now counting “probable” cases as as confirmed. Steve Faguy has a graph of the actual rate of increase, which is still pretty scary: https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1242142973284044803

• JaneyB 17:31 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  Apparently, some of the provinces have been including probable cases along with certain cases in their totals. (One positive test vs two positive tests). BC, AB, ON, QC, NS, PEI have *not* included probable cases. As of today, QC is joining SK, MB, NB, NFLD in adding probable with certain cases. Prepare to be alarmed as BC, AB and ON follow suit soon. The sooner people isolate, the sooner the infection will end. It will end.

• Meezly 17:42 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  Thanks JaneyB. So this explains why QC has surged ahead of other provinces with the highest number of cases?

• MtlWeb 18:21 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  Well said Matt. To add, even with testing the cases more likely to be positive (5.3%), the percentage that required hospitalization and/or intensive care has been reassuring compared to data in Europe/China. Our hospitals are ramping up # of beds that can be allocated for mild-moderate-severe Covid patients. May see mild positives (incl. non-hospitalized) sent to be quarantined in our hotels to minimize transmission at home (unless living alone with support for essentials).

• Raymond Lutz 22:27 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  Tooting my own horn here… but speaking of rate of increase, I now include in my plots the doubling period for each province, (ie the number of days it takes to observe an increase of cases by a factor 2) and the plots are semi-log which is more effective in comparing various grow rates. See https://twitter.com/lutzray

• Alison Cummins 22:42 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  I plotted cases per million for each province and territory and for Canada, setting 0 to the day the number reached 5.

  Québec’s curve is above Canada’s but BC’s is below. Not what I expected so maybe my plot isn’t valid.

• Alison Cummins 23:38 on 2020-03-23 Permalink

  ^ When I say “the number” reached 5, I meant cases per M reached 5.

• Alison Cummins 12:21 on 2020-03-24 Permalink

  Silver lining to COVID-19 for me is I get to count lots of things!

  Rate of increase by province, starting from the first reported case.
  YT 100%
  NT 100%
  ON 111% (does not include probable cases)
  BC 112% (does not include probable cases)
  PE 113%
  Total Canada 114%
  MB 119%
  NB 127%
  QC 129%
  AB 137% (does not include probable cases)
  NS 139%
  NL 142%
  SK 146%

  So Saskatchewan is increasing almost 50% daily whereas the Yukon has been holding steady at two cases for the last two days.

  Ontario averages 11% more cases every day than the day before whereas Quebec averages 29% more cases every day.

  Note that when provinces switch to reporting probables, it will increase the total number of cases but could theoretically *lower* the daily increase rates if it significantly backdates the first case.

• Alison Cummins 14:18 on 2020-03-24 Permalink

  In case your reader doesn’t support soft returns:

  Rate of increase by province, starting from the first reported case.
  YT 100%
  NT 100%
  ON 111% (does not include probable cases)
  BC 112% (does not include probable cases)
  PE 113%
  Total Canada 114%
  MB 119%
  NB 127%
  QC 129%
  AB 137% (does not include probable cases)
  NS 139%
  NL 142%
  SK 146%

• Raymond Lutz 20:51 on 2020-03-24 Permalink

  I’ve updated the script generating my two covid-19 plots… not as nice as Matthew’s ones, but they’ll please old people like me who are disoriented by big screens and slick mouseovers, nice work Matthew! 😎

  @Allison, I got 27% daily increase for Canada (not 14%). I average for the last 7 days to smooth out any slack in lab processing/reporting during weekends. From day to day I’ll flip between daily growth and doubling period (as both are used). I’m updating the plots daily around 20h00 DST when Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering pushes their stats.

  https://twitter.com/lutzray