Pedestrian dies in Hochelaga
An 80-year-old man was struck and killed by a car in Hochelaga on Thursday afternoon, mere minutes after another man in his 70s was hit by a dump truck on Bellechasse. The truck victim is in critical condition.
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Kate
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Chris 20:01 on 2020-03-12 Permalink
Automobiles kill 1.25 million people per year globally, more than double influenza. (We’ll see if COVID-19 beats it.)
Ian 10:06 on 2020-03-13 Permalink
Looking at more recent data from the WHO, lower respiratory infections killed 3 million people worldwide annually – that’s in a “normal” year. For the most part, it’s not COVID-19 killing people, it’s secondary infections.
I know you are obsessed with cars but let’s not detract from the seriousness of this pandemic.
Chris 13:21 on 2020-03-13 Permalink
Thanks for the more recent data. As it shows, automobiles kill *1.4* million per year, up from the 1.25 I cited. To say nothing of the many more injured and maimed.
I’m not detracting from the serious of COVID, I’m _highlighting_ the serious of automobile deaths, which are substantial and higher than most people know, by comparing it to other large killers.
Alison Cummins 14:24 on 2020-03-13 Permalink
Chris, the difference between COVID-19 and automobile accidents is that if we don’t do anything we’ll all get sick at once. We have no immunity and no vaccines. As in, 80% x 7.75B = 6.20B. And with that many people sick simultaneously, including 80% of health-care workers, the mortality rate can be expected to be about 6% — so 372M dead in the next nine months or so.
The goal is to slow the inevitable spread to a rate that our health-care systems can cope with, which should bring the mortality rate down to about 1%. If most of us can avoid getting it for the next year or two, there should be a reasonably effective vaccine and we can start going back to school and work and shit.
The apples-to-apples automobile crash comparison is more like if cars and paved roads (but not signage or stoplights) appeared overnight and 80% of everyone woke up with a vehicle, no idea how to drive or cross streets safely and no Drivers Ed. Automobile-related trauma would peak quickly and be extremely fatal as trauma departments would be unable to handle most patients.
Once we’ve all been exposed to COVID-19 or been vaccinated against it, it’ll just be another nasty flu and background noise, and the comparison to automobile accidents will be apt. But we aren’t there yet.
Alison Cummins 14:28 on 2020-03-13 Permalink
(Yeah, I don’t know how slowing the spread is supposed to work long-term either. Containment is what we should be doing, so that it goes away and we *don’t* all get it, short-or long-term. But we aren’t doing containment. Canadians are still allowed to travel.)
Alison Cummins 14:29 on 2020-03-13 Permalink
Also: better-informed people PLEASE correct me.
Ian 18:07 on 2020-03-14 Permalink
That’s pretty much the gist of it as I understand it, too – this is why there is so much effort around “flattening the curve” – it’s so the hospital infrastructure doesn’t get overwhelmed like in Italy where triage has gone so far they won’t see you if you are over a certain age. If it does, well…
There’s a reason they are digging mass graves in Iran so large that you can see them from space.
Chris 11:34 on 2020-03-15 Permalink
Alison, sure, but… you seem to have read something into my words that wasn’t there.
Ian, notice most of those ‘flattening the curve’ images you see floating around don’t have any numbers on the y axis. It’s not at all likely that we can flatten it enough to not overwhelm hospitals. Still worth trying of course, and less overwhelmed is better than more.