Curve not flattening fast enough: Drouin
The epidemic curve is not coming down in Montreal, according to public health head Dr Mylène Drouin. Some STM buses are going to become mobile testing clinics for some of the “hotter” districts.
The epidemic curve is not coming down in Montreal, according to public health head Dr Mylène Drouin. Some STM buses are going to become mobile testing clinics for some of the “hotter” districts.
david100 20:56 on 2020-05-04 Permalink
I’ve not seen any reporting on the protocols instituted for interaction with the elderly, but that should be our top priority right now. It’s ridiculous. All the data show that they’re by far the most vulnerable, and there should be police state-like action against care homes and other facilities to ensure that their carelessness doesn’t lead to unnecessary suffering and death.
Brett 22:28 on 2020-05-04 Permalink
Does anyone have any good data on where these new cases are coming from? We know the vast majority of deaths are in CHSLDs and private nursing homes- that much at least is clear from the age breakdown of covid deaths (70% are over 70). But i’d like to see data which shows the cases that are in institutions (prisons, hospitals and nursing homes) versus the ones are a result of community spread.
Kevin 13:36 on 2020-05-05 Permalink
Brett
Community spread has been the main vector for Covid-19 since late March.
What we’re seeing in institutions is the result of the same progression of the disease as in society at large. One person has it. Two weeks later several more people have it. Two weeks later each of those people has infected others.
And we know that the odds of contracting the disease go up the longer you spend time in a closed room with an infected person — which means jails, nursing homes, offices etc… are the perfect place to breed.
8 weeks ago everyone going in and out of institutions should have been monitored and had strict safety protocols enforced, but that didn’t happen until after the disease got in.
Brett 14:16 on 2020-05-05 Permalink
Kevin, those are all valid points. As you pointed out, the Sars-Cov-2 virus spreads very easily among populations in institutions and enclosed quarters.
So what I want to know is, of the cases and deaths we have now, which ones are linked to institutional spread (e.g. health care workers with a hospital acquired infection, PABs) and which ones are outside of institutions (supermarket workers, dog walkers, COVID party attendees, etc.)
If we know that the vast majority are inside institutions, we can stop talking about the curve not flattening in Montreal and saying that we have an ongoing problem linked to institutional spread .
JaneyB 14:51 on 2020-05-05 Permalink
@Brett. As far as I know, the vast majority are inside institutions, mostly the result of the neglect that surfaced a couple of weeks ago so that’s still going around in the CHSLDs. The testing protocols moved to hospitals and CHSLDs in order to contain those outbreaks – that’s partly why Mtl’s case numbers have been holding steady.
The community spread right now is mostly in Mtl Nord, CdN, RdP, some in Hochelaga and is believed to be due to the large number of people there who work at the poorly paid jobs in those healthcare institutions. I assume multi-generational immigrant families and entrenched poverty problems of Hochelaga are also factors that require special messaging. For instance about 25% of the new cases in Mtl Nord are from healthcare workers (less hospitals, more CHSLDs etc). The public health system is now concentrating its attention there as a result, with expanded community testing. That will mean there will be many new cases added to our city tally which is demoralizing.
After watching yesterday’s press conference, it seems that Arruda’s team has mostly been focussed on the hospitalization and death rates because that’s the number one concern for maintaining the health care system and its med staff – the primary vulnerability of this whole crisis. The case rates tell them more about where to do urgent contact tracing and strict quarantining than when to de-confine us. I think this is why they are less distressed by the new case increases than those of us who’ve been keeping spreadsheets and watching the ‘decreasing increase’ of cases with hope. Now that we’re learning the hospitalization rates are being muddied by some CHSLD people who are not being transferred back to the still hottish institutions, it is clearer why Arruda is less perturbed by the emerging numbers eg: the hospital numbers now incorporate some of the CHSLD crisis. Bottom line: laypeople can’t read the numbers correctly since we are each thinking our our individual risk not broader trends. Still though, no normal socializing for us over the next while, ughh.
Kevin 16:23 on 2020-05-05 Permalink
Brett
Nobody knows. That requires effective contact tracing and it hasn’t been happening.
(Why hasn’t it been happening Kevin?)
Several reasons. Some people who test positive but have mild symptoms haven’t been answering their phones. Some people who test positive haven’t been staying at home. Some people have been answering their phones but cannot communicate with the tracers. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Kevin 19:39 on 2020-05-05 Permalink
Here’s a Gazette article showing tracing starts by the team getting a fax. And not all tracers have computers https://t.co/66cil64g55