Quebec changes vaccination plan
Does anyone have an opinion whether Quebec is acting wisely or not in the change of plans meaning it won’t hold back doses for booster shots but instead give more people a single dose of the Covid vaccine? Is this decision based on science or on politics?
Additionally: CBC has a piece on how we’ll know when it’s our turn. Canada can’t ordain this, since health care is a provincial matter, but the article has links to provincial health care systems, including Quebec’s. (Read the page now if you prefer to read in English – I imagine this won’t be available for long.)
Michael Black 11:28 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
The drug company had set the protocol, but has now said this is okay. That seems to imply that the supply can be relied on for the second dose.
vasi 11:51 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
Yeah, this isn’t “give people one dose” versus “give people both doses”. We’re definitely still giving two doses. It’s just a logistical question of whether to physically hold onto the second dose for three weeks, or rely on the second dose being shipped just-in-time.
It’s like the difference between buying three weeks worth of toilet paper all at once, or getting a couple rolls from the store every week. The first could cause potential shortages, but the second means relying on consistent supply.
jeather 12:23 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
I think that relying on consistent supply is taking a risk at the very finish line, and also if things go wrong is nicely setting up for vaccine-resistant strains. I grant that there are arguments either way, from people who have more expertise than I do, but I’ve been more convinced by the “better safe than sorry” people, probably because I would tend that way naturally.
Ephraim 12:24 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
Meanwhile, in Israel, over 1 million people, an eighth of the population has been vaccinated. You get texted to set up your appointment. You get your second appointment (and a text to confirm it) when you get your dose. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-covid-vaccinations-1.5859396 and they are going to have to have break of 2 weeks because they are ahead of supply.
One of my friends got texted to make their appointments. They are running the clinic in an empty shopping mall, doing the actual vaccinations in an empty store. Orderly, quick, 15 minute wait. Next.
I’m in group 6 in Quebec. I’ll be lucky if I see it in March! Our healthcare system needs to be better organized and more electronic. Now is the time to invest and fix the damn infrastructure…. because we can see that we need it.
Blork 12:33 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
I think it makes sense. I had read a while ago that even a vaccine with 45% efficacy would make a big difference, but there was pressure to make vaccines that showed much higher numbers.
I also heard some scientists on the radio last week saying that the first shot in the two-shot vaccine still provides something like 52% immunity, so that’s still pretty good.
So what it comes down to is something like this: is it better to have a small number of people achieve 95% immunity, or to have twice as many people achieve 52% immunity? It’s a bit of a crap shoot.
Blork 12:35 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
…and my understanding is that the Moderna vaccine is significantly more effective than the Pfizer one after a single shot. Plus the goal is to get everyone that second shot, but to move fast by getting twice as many people the first shot quickly.
Chris 12:42 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
What Blork said, plus: waiting longer than the prescribed 3 weeks for the second shot isn’t expected to reduce efficacy. It’s more that taking it after *less* than 3 weeks isn’t good.
Also, in general, the best choice depends on what one is optimizing for: are we trying to minimise deaths?, minimise spread?, minimise severity of symptoms?, etc. They are not necessarily the same. Hoarding doses may be better for one but not the other.
Raymond Lutz 14:31 on 2021-01-02 Permalink
Hmm, d’après le peu que je comprends, il n’y a rien de tel que 100% immunisé… Quelque soit le type de vaccin, on “attrape” toujours la maladie: l’agent infectieux (virus ou bactérie) pénètre _toujours_ dans le corps, mais la réponse du système immunitaire est accélérée quand on a déjà été exposé. L’infection progresse donc moins, autant en sévérité (réplication au site d’entrée) qu’en étendue dans les autres organes: on est donc “moins malade”.
Wanna go down the rabbit hole of biology Intricacies ? You think quantum mechanics, General Relativity and Montréal parking signage are complex? This Kurzgesagt serie on our immune system will make your head explode.
vasi 19:03 on 2021-01-04 Permalink
Seems I was wrong, it looks like we are actually delaying second doses: https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-following-new-vaccine-policy-to-the-letter-as-montreal-care-home-misses-second-shots-1.5253074 . Not sure how I feel about this!