Vacancies up, but so are rents
Apartment vacancies are up, but so are rents. I wonder if there’s any chance that market forces will push rents down, once tenants have more choice.
Apartment vacancies are up, but so are rents. I wonder if there’s any chance that market forces will push rents down, once tenants have more choice.
Kevin 18:56 on 2021-01-28 Permalink
More people moving to the suburbs, more people buying, less people here — Montreal’s budget is going to slammed in a couple of years.
DeWolf 20:36 on 2021-01-28 Permalink
The population of Montreal Island still grew by 2.3% from 2019-2020, Kevin.
https://statistique.quebec.ca/en/fichier/population-regions-administratives-quebec-2020.pdf
Granted, that only includes the first few months of the pandemic. But I would bank on a slow rate of growth for a couple of years rather than actual population loss. Especially when the border reopens and immigration picks up again.
Ephraim 20:40 on 2021-01-28 Permalink
It’s temporary. The students aren’t here… they will return
Chris 20:40 on 2021-01-28 Permalink
Kevin, humans have been urbanizing more and more for centuries; sure there could be small reversals here and there, like due to covid, but I’d wager Montreal and other cities will soon be on the up and up again.
Kate 20:49 on 2021-01-28 Permalink
Immigration also slowed way down in 2020. That too will come back.
Kevin 21:32 on 2021-01-28 Permalink
49,729 Moved to greater Montreal in 19-20.
24,880 Moved out of greater Montreal to the regions during that time frame.
That’s a record high outflow from the region and a net growth for the region of 0.7%. Equivalent to greater Winnipeg.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/daily-quotidien/210114/dq210114a-eng.pdf?st=La5M824L
The Quebec Stats group points out the city’s net growth is only 5,000
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/grand-montreal/2021-01-14/un-nombre-record-de-montrealais-quittent-l-ile.php
That said, most Montrealers under 35 want to leave the city. https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1743954/montrealais-quittent-metropole-sondage
Yes it defies other global trends but I think it’s pretty clear that a lot of Quebecers dislike Montreal and don’t want to live here.
Chris 10:00 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
There are literally billions of humans living in places much worse off than Montreal, politically, economically, socially. So yeah, immigration will be back too.
Bill Binns 10:51 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
My wife has been working from home since early March. The soonest her company says they could be back in their offices is August. Many of her colleagues never want to go back. Productivity at her company has skyrocketed. People calling off sick is almost unheard of. It seems to be working well for both employees and employer. We think her and many of her colleagues will never go back to 5 days a week at the office. I’m sure similar situations are unfolding everywhere. This could be the start of a fundamental shift away from cities.
Once you don’t have the commute to worry about, it’s hard to make a case for living on top of each other on the island, especially downtown. The few houses for sale in places like Greenfield Park or St Lambert are selling in days. Our Real Estate agents are telling us there is a huge glut of people looking to get off the island.
Kate 11:49 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
Why would anyone leave the city at a time like this? I can get everything I strictly need within a few minutes of my place in Villeray. Given the pandemic circumstances, why would you go somewhere that would make provisioning during a pandemic more onerous and expose you to more people?
I guess the answer is: most people have a car.
Mark Côté 12:34 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
Well, conversely, a lot of the appeal of living in the city isn’t there now, viz easier socialization, restaurants, nightlife, etc., and it’s reasonable (if depressing) to imagine this won’t change much for at least another year. Plus, lots of people are in the city because the jobs are here (the main reason for mass urban migration over the last 200+ years). The city isn’t a healthy environment for everyone; I imagine it’s not uncommon for someone living in a crowded-but-also-dead area of the city to dream of open spaces at the moment.
I don’t think all those people have cars now, but presumably they have licenses (~70% of the total population of Canada has one) and a willingness to purchase a car if necessary.
DeWolf 13:36 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
News stories full of anecdotes of people moving to the suburbs are always kind of funny. If someone is trading an apartment in St-Henri for a detached house on a cul-de-sac in Brossard, that’s a pretty drastic change in lifestyle. Either they’re fundamentalists about being homeowners and willing to sacrifice atmosphere and walkability just to have a mortgage, or they’ve been considering that lifestyle change for awhile, and bars being closed is just an excuse to finally make the jump.
I have my own anecdotes: I know people currently trying to find places in central neighbourhoods and they’re having a very difficult time because there’s a bidding war for every plex or condo they make an offer on. Over the past several months, there have been several buildings and condos on my street that have gone up for sale at eye-watering prices, and they’ve sold within weeks. Property prises rose 20% last year which suggests there is no shortage of people eager to replace those fleeing to the suburbs or the countryside.
And as everyone has already pointed out, it all comes down to immigration. Montreal receives more immigrants than all but a few North American cities, and if it weren’t for them, its population would have been shrinking a long time ago. Same for Toronto, which had an even bigger net outflux of people last year. In both cities, native-born people have been streaming out for decades, but there have always been more than enough immigrants to replace. Once immigration resumes later this year or next year, growth will resume.
Kevin 15:00 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
Home ownership is widely perceived as a necessary step in retirement planning and wealth accrual, even if it’s not actually true. Moving to a place with more space is aspirational — and makes a lot of sense if you only have to go to the office once or twice a week .
Provisioning is also easy because of the rise in order online-curbside pickup. That’s not going to disappear when the pandemic is controlled in 12 months.
Neither will working remotely. Companies are already rethinking their corporate space around essential in-person meetings and having far fewer staff in person. And wait until more companies start hiring more people living in other provinces or countries instead of locals…
That’s going to translate to fewer jobs located in Montreal’s downtown core, and fewer jobs catering to those people.
My only question is how long until the city of Montreal will be fewer than 1/3 francophone. My money is on 2025.
Unless the Bill 101 reform includes tax penalties for companies that have people working remotely…
Joey 15:36 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
Bill says: “Once you don’t have the commute to worry about, it’s hard to make a case for living on top of each other on the island, especially downtown. The few houses for sale in places like Greenfield Park or St Lambert are selling in days. Our Real Estate agents are telling us there is a huge glut of people looking to get off the island.”
Yeah, same story in the Plateau. Our agents are telling us there is a huge glut of people looking to get into Mile-End.
Meezly 17:51 on 2021-01-29 Permalink
A parent in a parenting playgroup moved to Morin Heights in June 2020 – I assume one of many families fleeing to the countryside last year.
She had a prime spot in the middle of 2.5 acres of forest. She would see foxes and their cubs, wolves, turkeys by the dozen and eat wild raspberries every morning. She must have considered herself one of the lucky ones.
Then in November, the forest got razed and now she’s staring at empty land the size of 3 football fields less than 30 m from her front door. There was even dynamiting without notification and town council was closed to the public last spring during the pandemic apparently granting developers permission to do this kind of shit?
Whatever the case, there may be a number of sketchy suburban projects going on in the Laurentians and more. I hope local conservancy groups are keying in on possible unethical development practices.
I just can’t help thinking about the irony of humans fleeing the city to ‘get back to nature’, when it only results in the destruction of said nature to supply a demand for housing in rural areas.
The ‘huge glut of people’ thinking they’re getting away from human blight, only to be confronted by another form of human blight somewhere else.