Coderre already ahead of Plante
A survey done by L’actualité shows that Denis Coderre is already well ahead of Valérie Plante in the mayoralty race – even though he hasn’t formally declared his candidacy.
But did they ask respondents if they actually get out to vote in the municipal election?
Coderre has also put out a promotional video for his book, ably summarized by Philippe Teisceira-Lessard.
GC 08:29 on 2021-03-26 Permalink
No kidding. What is the average turnout for a municipal election? Maybe 40%?
Do people really want the Coderre years back?
DeWolf 10:36 on 2021-03-26 Permalink
Somebody on Reddit dug into the fine print of the survey methodology and found that it drastically under-represents younger people. The result is that it shows overwhelming support for Coderre among 18-35 year olds (ha!) and it also shows Coderre winning the Plateau in a landslide – which is pretty amusing considering the enormous margins Projet enjoys in the borough.
In other words, I’m not sure any of these very early polls with limited sample sizes are worth anything. For whatever reason, local media really love Coderre and they seem to be doing their best to drum up support for him.
Kevin 16:26 on 2021-03-26 Permalink
The poll’s authors point out that the results for young voters were surprising.
“Si l’on ne considère que les électeurs de 35 ans et plus, les deux candidats sont au coude-à-coude : Coderre a la faveur de 42 % des répondants et Plante, 40 %. De plus, nous pourrions ajouter que l’échantillon de répondants de 18 à 34 ans est plus modeste que celui des autres tranches d’âge, donc ce sous-échantillon possède une plus grande marge d’erreur. Est-ce une donnée statistiquement aberrante ? C’est une hypothèse plausible.”
A poll of more than 2,300 people is not a small sample. The breakdowns by group are small – they always are — but they can be revealing. In this case, I think what’s important is what citizens consider important — and we’re looking at relaunching the city, housing cost increases, managing roadwork, and then transit.
Three of those are issues where the city has limited effect, and where I think the majority of residents are unaware of the split in powers between municipal/provincial/federal.