Montreal City Weblog

Kate 16:00 on 2023-09-21 Permalink Reply  

• carswell 17:42 on 2023-09-21 Permalink

  “…stationner dans le cartier [sic] est un vrai casse-tête…”

  Maybe instead of protesting they should take some French courses?

  Don’t do Facebook so can’t check their pages but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hervé-Benoit Tremblay and Marie-Pier Guimond were Freedom Convoy/People’s Party of Canada/anti-masker types.

  We live in an era of emboldened yahoos. And pretty soon one of them is probably going to be our PM.

• carswell 18:08 on 2023-09-21 Permalink

  Ha! A friend reports that on Facebook “Tremblay is a climate change denier and chemtrail loony.”

• walkerp 20:33 on 2023-09-21 Permalink

  Don’t get sucked into the narrative that Poilevre is somehow destined to win. The major media outlets have been pushing this storyline for months now based only on slight changes in polls that they sponsor. I am not saying it is a conspiracy theory for the cons but just that the media often does this in the year leading up to an election as it gets them clicks.

• bumper carz 21:41 on 2023-09-21 Permalink

  I’m starting a petition to have all the parks in St-Michel turned into parking lots.

• Kevin 22:48 on 2023-09-21 Permalink

  National polls in Canada and the USA are *completely meaningless* in determining election results. They are useful in pointing out trends and what the public thinks about single issues, but don’t mean much when it comes to voting intentions.

  Most people don’t even understand that we have three levels of government and if they do know, then don’t get who is responsible for what. If they did municipal elections would have much higher participation rates.

  Kate– I put in my new email address…

• carswell 10:50 on 2023-09-22 Permalink

  Did I mention poll numbers anywhere?

  In any case, I always take them with a grain of salt and even more so after being blindsided by the Shitgibbon’s 2016 presidential victory. But as noted, they can be indicative of trends and the trends — in polls but also in life — don’t look good for the Liberals, especially the Liberals under the long-past-his-best-before-date Trudeau.

  Answer me this: Of Canada’s 23 PMs, how many have served an uninterrupted term as leader of four governments? How many in the last 100 years? You really think Trudeau’s going to buck that trend?

  My impression is that Trudeau fatigue is widespread, that his popularity is tanking. Especially worrisome for him has got to be his dwindling support among one of his key constituencies, young people.

  Last time around, Trudeau couldn’t even squeak out a majority running against an unpopular wimp like O’Toole. How’s he going to fare next time against a smarter, scrappier and far less uncharismatic opponent with the wind in his sails, the fire in his belly and the full backing of the Harper machine and its imported US rightwing strategists?

  Meanwhile, everyone is feeling the economic pinch and it looks set to get worse, with inflation heading in the wrong direction and interest rates expected to start rising again, just as a huge numbers of homeowners are about to renew their mortgages. Due to artificial shortages, the price of oil is probably going to stay high and maybe rise. Widespread electrification is coming but not by the next election, so gas prices will be an issue (with Poilievre blaming the carbon tax). These issues may be global and not the Liberals’ fault but history shows that’s not how voters think when they vote their pocketbook.

  Also, from all signs, Ontario is trending to the right. How else to you explain back-to-back Ford majorities?

  Trudeau’s pandering to Quebec nationalists has turned off many non-francophone locals, which may shrink his count in Quebec by a seat or two. Legault may not stay above the fray next time around either and he’d probably side with the Bloc or the Conservatives, both of which say they’ll give Quebec, i.e. him, more power. And at least a few Atlantic ridings look like they may be competitive for the Conservatives.

  While always a possibility when you have a minority government, a snap election seems unlikely, especially as the NDP’s war chest is low. That likely means the next election won’t be for another two years. And admittedly, two years is a long time in politics. Lots could change.

  Trudeau could step down (though he’s so full of himself, I wouldn’t count on it and find myself wondering whether his decision to run again may be one of the reasons Grégoire split). If he did resign, is there someone waiting in the wings who can unite the party, energize the base, excite voters? It’s not Chrystia Freeland.

  Immigrant communities tend to vote Liberal. But the Libs kind of dropped the ball on the election interference business. Will that affect the Chinese-Canadian vote? What about the ongoing face-off with India? Might that turn off Hindu-Canadian voters? And however grateful they are to the Libs, will Sikh-Canadians vote Liberal when Jagmeet Singh is on the ballot? We’re probably not talking many potentially affected seats but they could make a difference in a close race.

  Whatever you think about polls, it’s hard to make a case that Poilievre isn’t on a roll. Maybe he’ll peak too soon. Maybe the opposition will succeed in painting him as Harper’s mini-me or as Trump lite and that’ll be that. Maybe the economy will greatly improve, the cost of living won’t be an issue and people won’t be primed to blame high oil, gas and food prices and un- or barely affordable mortgages on the current government. Maybe the Ford government will completely discredit the Conservatives in Ontario. Maybe. Not holding my breath.

  My current thinking — definitely not a prediction — is that the election will be held in 2025 and, with or without Trudeau at the helm, the Liberals will be seen as having run out of steam, that few voters will be inspired to vote for them (though some will do so to keep Poilievre out of the PM’s office), that the Conservatives will have eastern BC, Alberta and the Prairies sewn up and may pick up a few seats in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which will be enough to hand them the election if, as they seem primed to do, they can make inroads in Ontario. That would be enough to give them a win. If that happens, I can’t even say a majority government wouldn’t be preferable to a minority government with the Bloc as the power broker and a PM willing to give them a lot of what they want. And even if he didn’t, we’ve seen what havoc Poilievre’s mentor was able to wreak as head of a minority government.

  Apologies for the length of this and for the thread drift.

• Kate 20:07 on 2023-09-22 Permalink

  What amazes me is that because J. Trudeau hasn’t solved all our problems, many people think Pierre Poilievre could. It isn’t logical.

• walkerp 14:33 on 2023-09-23 Permalink

  Great analysis, carswell, thanks for that. I agree with most of it except the Poilevre being on a roll. This is the media-supported narrative I am referring to. He is basically a carbon copy of all the other milquetoast Con leaders courting the extreme right before him, all of whom failed. What has he actually done or said that differentiates him from them? Nothing. It’s just the same old anti-Trudeau politics of the personal. I mean his big move this year is removing his glasses. The media then pumps him up as if he is serious because they want a race.
  If the Liberals lose, it will be mostly their own doing for all the reasons you mention above plus the big two of inflation and the historical trend of Canadian voters throwing the Liberals out after they are in power for too long. I would certainly place no money on them winning the next election but I would also not rule it out.

• Ian 18:23 on 2023-09-23 Permalink

  I’d also like to give props on that analysis.

  Don’t assume Singh’s got the Indian vote locked up though, they tend to vote conservative – Mississauga is a good example of that.

  I do think Liberal fatigue is a real problem, and it’s pretty unfortunate that unlike the cons the libs haven’t been grooming successors.

  Poilievre is going to be a disaster if he gets in, but if the libs don’t pull up their socks and create a succession plan he well might. I would happily bet cash money that they will lose the federal election if they run Trudeau again.