Ted Rutland on the car theft crisis
Ted Rutland points out on X that the current car theft crisis is a statistical anomaly. If anything, car theft is returning to its average over the last 23 years (see graph in his post).
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Kate
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Joey 14:08 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
I am not a statistician, but I don’t think it’s accurate to call it a statistical anomaly (I am also fan of Ted’s work). Yes, obviously things aren’t as bad as they were in 2000. However, the number of thefts (even adjusted for population growth) has about tripled in four years – it’s at its highest in 15 years. How bad should we let things get before taking action? Why should this kind of crime be permitted to grow rapidly? The readership here is pretty anti-car (that’s even the case for hypocrites like me who drive cars regularly). Does that mean we just ignore a rapid spike in auto thefts? Meanwhile, insurance companies are replacing one $60K car after another – sooner or later the bill comes due.
Put it another way – what is the maximum number of car thefts we should tolerate before doing something about it?
Blork 17:48 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
The other thing to consider is that the nature of car thefts is changing (according to a recent CBC report). The numbers are going up presumably because it’s becoming more lucrative, and as such, nastier criminals are getting involved. And there’s a component of violence creeping in (making it not just a property crime).
CBC was talking about home invasions to get car keys, car-jackings, etc. (They were referring to the situation in Toronto, but that doesn’t mean the local nasties won’t pick up on the idea.)
Kate 17:51 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
Please don’t think I was implying the surge in car thefts is no big deal. It was more that Rutland’s brief analysis was pointing out that the current situation isn’t all that unusual. He’s also very alert to the kind of spin the police use to get even more funding.
Joey 18:10 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
Fair enough, but he’s wrong – a tripling of thefts in four years is hardly a statistical anomaly.
Ian 19:30 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
It really does make you wonder what the point if the grotesquely inflated police budget was if they were actually doing a better job with less budget.
PO 19:58 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
Would need to see if the data is for thefts where the car is never seen again, or if it includes the surge of Kia break-ins where teens break in, drive it around for fun, trash it and dump it.
DeWolf 21:41 on 2024-02-12 Permalink
From what I understand, there’s a lot of new model cars that are easy to steal because of various technological defects. And on top of that, the port is poorly secured, and with easy access to high-value markets in West Africa, it’s very lucrative to steal cars here. About 2/3 cars stolen in Quebec are recent models compared to 1/3 in BC.
Rutland has an axe to grind with the police, which I understand, but he’s definitely trying to minimize a worrying trend in property crime. The SPVM is incompetent but that doesn’t mean a huge surge in car theft isn’t a big deal.
Maybe if the SPVM starts to care about car theft they’ll give a fuck about bike theft? Maybe?
Ian 18:16 on 2024-02-13 Permalink
LOL no, unless it’s an 9k touring bike stolen from some rich dude’s garage.
That KIA/ Hyundai flaw is pretty hilarious though, I wasn’t aware that you could just steal them with a USB cable. I remember in the 80s you could start some cars with a screwdriver in a pinch but c’mon. A pretty egregious oversight. Apparently in some parts of the US insurers won’t cover car theft for these models.