Federal Liberal byelection choice slammed
Some in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun federal riding are unhappy about the federal Liberal party’s choice of candidate for the upcoming byelection. Three aspiring candidates got stood up when the party chose councillor Laura Palestini to run. She’ll be up against another councillor, Craig Sauvé, who’s running for the NDP.
MarcG 10:17 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
*the Liberal party’s choice
Kate 11:49 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Thanks. I had that wording in the headline, but I sometimes forget the headline is for X only, and doesn’t show up on the main blog.
jeather 12:30 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
They parachuted Marc Miller in, too; anyone who is shocked and not “shocked” knows nothing about politics.
(I have no idea who Palestini is, while Sauve is well-known.)
carswell 12:44 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Hoping this throws the Liberals into disarray and allows Sauvé to claim the seat. Would be great to have another Montreal-based NDP MP. And a loss for the Liberals would significantly increase the pressure on Trudeau to step down.
Kate 12:57 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Justin Trudeau hasn’t been a stellar PM, but I don’t understand the pressure to get rid of him. I don’t see anyone in the ranks that I’d prefer as PM, and I cringe when I think of Poilievre taking the reins.
MarcG 13:04 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Perhaps it parallels the US situation a bit where Poilievre/Trump and co have put so much energy into “Trudeau/Biden Bad” that floor falls out from under them if that person doesn’t run. I’ll be voting for Sauvé.
carswell 13:13 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
The pressure to get rid of him stems from the widespread perception that he’s no longer a viable contender, that he is, in fact, a drag on the party, that if he remains in place, Poilievre’s victory and a Conservative majority government are virtually ensured.
Kate 13:56 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
I’m convinced the hate I see online for both Valérie Plante and Justin Trudeau is because they happened to be in power during the pandemic. Anything people disliked about the situation – mask mandates, closures, inflation, vaccinations, projects that were delayed or abandoned – people don’t think it through, but it gets blamed on them, even if the reasons are subconscious ones.
The odd part is that François Legault doesn’t seem to collect anything like the same acrimony.
Kevin 15:04 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Legault has gone from the most-liked premier in Canada in the early days of the pandemic to now being one of the least-liked
https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-march-2024/
https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Premi4-1024×528.png
Blork 15:17 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
I tend to agree with Kate, but with the added note that (in my observation) the longer a person is in power the more their popularity declines. While there are a few exceptions, that’s the pattern I’ve seen over the years, and a lot of it is (I think) due to the same sort of thing that Kate mentions. Essentially that many people blame all problems on the government.
It’s like if we were all on a government airliner and it flew through a flock of geese that destroyed the engines (an environmental cause, nothing to do with the government) and as the plane is diving towards the ground the government says “hey, but we’re thinking in advance so there’s a parachute for everyone” so everyone survives the plane crash and are put up in a motel for two days while it’s all sorted out. A few people will say “we survived the plane crash due to the government’s foresight, and then they sheltered us for a few days while we got sorted out.” Other people will say “I lost all my luggage due to the government not having parachutes for my suitcases and then they put us in a low-rent motel instead of the three-star hotel that I deserve and it took two whole days to sort it out. IT’S ALL THEIR FAULT.
Ian 15:39 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Mark Carney would be a great replacement for Trudeau.
jeather 15:41 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
FWIW, I’m still pretty happy with Plante. I can’t really imagine who could take over from Trudeau — he doesn’t have a natural successor, and honestly people don’t want one of his closest advisors to take over and become Trudeau 3.0
Tee Owe 16:29 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Maybe he should follow his fathers example and take a walk in the snow – oh, that’ll be a while yet
Kate 17:01 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Legault may not be popular, Kevin, but I don’t see the casual sneering dislike expressed on social media for Legault that I often see about Plante or Trudeau. These users rarely have a definable reason for their hostility, usually phrasing in a way that implies “well, of course Trudeau is despicable, everyone hates him” or “Plante is such a fool, we all know that” – very much a “manufacturing consent” mode.
Ian, has Carney ever said he’d want the job? Last I saw him mentioned in the news, he was still in the UK.
Taylor 17:25 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Taking bets the Liberals were like “wait, wait, wait… her name’s Palestini? Well that’s close enough! This makes it seem like we care about Palestinians.”
bob 18:05 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
The reason for the hate is the hate mongers who have been blaring the message constantly on all social media and on the constellation of right wing media – that depend on corporate welfare to survive – for several years running. There is no content or reason in the message. It is intended only to provoke rage.
walkerp 18:27 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
carswell, you are simply parroting the Conservative narrative. Will propaganda be enough to move an election? Possibly in the social media age, but this next election is still wide open. What have the Liberals done or not done that would actually sway the middle voter over to the Conservatives? What are the Conservatives proposing that would actually sway a Liberal voter over to them?
Chris 20:13 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
>Essentially that many people blame all problems on the government.
OTOH, governments (of all stripes) take credit for anything going well, even when they are not really the cause (ex “stock market up under Biden!”). So live by the sword, die by the sword.
>What are the Conservatives proposing that would actually sway a Liberal voter over to them?
That they aren’t Trudeau.
You think “Liberal voters” are all diehard partisans? Nope. Most just choose the guy who sucks less. Trudeau has simply been in charge too long now. Time’s up, throw the bum out. Just like we did to Harper after his decade. Anyone else instead. And we basically only have 2 parties, so it’s Poilievre next.
H. John 21:12 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
@Kate Carney has been back in Canada for quite a while (since leaving the Bank of England and selling his London home around 2020).
The fact that Trudeau has asked him to join his cabinet has been all over Canadian political newscasts for the last week. Minister Freeland has had to constantly respond to questions as to whether or not she’s staying as Finance Minister.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2024/07/15/analysis/mark-carney-finance-minister-canada-climate-ambitions
Kate 21:28 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Chris, it’s not a neutral choice to vote for party A simply because you’re bored with party B. Party A’s plans have consequences – in this case, environmental damage, loss of the CBC, all kinds of other bad shit.
H. John: thank you. I think I’ve been ignoring federal government news too much.
Kevin 23:12 on 2024-07-23 Permalink
Kate
I didn’t look far to see dozens of people calling the premier “crosseur” or something similar https://twitter.com/francoislegault/status/1815854197780406341
CE 00:18 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
I really hope Carney joins up, if only to keep Freeland from being seen as Trudeau’s natural successor. I’d like to see a woman take over the Liberals and become the next PM but Freeland seems to be seen as the PM in waiting and she definitely has absolutely no chance of winning.
Anton 02:40 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
I never liked Trudeau cuz hes always been fake and I dont believe in Monarchy, the son of a prime minister should not be a prime minister,
I hate Trudeau ever since he killed electoral reform for his own personal benefit in 2016 – to stay in power. He thus kept Canadian Democracy stuck in the 19th century for his own personal gain, actively preventing a pluralist democracy. If there is now to be a mini-Trump in Canada, thanks to the skewing of the backward electoral system, it is 100% his fault. Hes a liar and anti-democrat who does what he does for his personal gain, and poeple accept that rot because they’re jaded and cynical about politics.
Compare to Biden, whos stepping down for the benefit of the country.
Tim S. 06:32 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
What Anton said.
I’ve volunteered for the NDP for the past 4 elections, so keep that in mind, but a few points about Trudeau, that imho are not just propaganda:
1) on policy, he’s late to realize problems ( early days of COVID feds were useless, even harmful, cost of living, housing) and then has a tendency to over announce and under-deliver.
2) tendency to demonize opponents as un-Canadian, which is especially frustrating when he’s the one changing his mind ( again, see COVID – started off by insisting on open borders, don’t solve problems by shutting out the world, ended by imposing vaccine mandates to travel on VIA)
3) inability to read the room on when it’s appropriate to be serious, in-charge PM, and when to do the goofy sock thing. I actually think this is what gets under the skin of the mildly paying attention voter more than anyone else, and leads to some of the general contempt.
walkerp 08:07 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
There are definitely real reasons to critique the Liberals*, but none of these things are any different than in past elections and in some ways the Liberals are actually better off than they were before (for instance, the Lavalin-SNC scandal has been completely forgotten). And most of the critiques I see here are coming from the left, so you probably aren’t going to vote for Poilievre.
And what the Liberals always do that is so maddening to those of us who want real progress, is they campaign from the left and then move back to the center/center-right once they are in power. This is what they are doing right now with recent legislation on housing and a few other things. The only real factors I see that make a significant electoral difference (and these are both questions) are right-wing propaganda (how effective when it comes to the ballot box?) and this elusive but very real concept of “voter fatigue”.
The Cons, so far, have failed to make a practical case as to why they should be in power. They have no platform other than “we hate Justin” and anything he does. Poilievre is deeply unlikable in his own special way.
We’ll see what happens, but I think a Liberal minority is in play, a conservative minority more likely, but the race is open.
*I also question this assumption that somehow Trudeau is in full control in his party and that he makes all the decisions. That is another effect of the anti-Justin propaganda. The Liberal party is an old, big organization that has some pretty powerful influencers behind the scenes. They made Justin their figurehead when he was young and he has definitely increased his influence, but he’s not the kind there the way his father was.
carswell 08:10 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
@walkerp You sound like a broken record and a vaguely insulting one at that.
Am not going to bother rebutting your renewed assertion, especially when it’s clear you have your head in the sand. A few months back, I spelled out my view of the current political reality and, post Toronto-St. Paul’s and other developments, see nothing to dissuade me from it. On the contrary.
As I noted back then, much can change in the next 15 months — Poilievre is cocky and may peak too soon, for example — but barring some unexpected major development like Trudeau stepping down (and even then…), I remain convinced the next government will be Conservative.
Whether it’s a majority or a minority government remains to be seen. But even the latter could be a disaster. We saw what damage Harper wrecked in such a situation. And Poilievre would probably end up partnering with the Bloc Québécois on the promise to dismantle the federal government in favour of provincial rights (semi-independence for Quebec; drill, baby, drill for Alberta).
@Anton Yes! I know several people who will never vote for the Libs, even strategically, because of his electoral reform about-face. And that’s even setting aside his sense of dynastic entitlement.
carswell 08:19 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Will note that my above reply is to walkerp’s first post. Good to read his somewhat more nuanced second comment (posted as I was finishing mine), though I find it more wishful thinking than reality based.
Chris 09:11 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
>Chris, it’s not a neutral choice to vote for party A simply because you’re bored with party B. Party A’s plans have consequences – in this case, environmental damage, loss of the CBC, all kinds of other bad shit.
Well obviously. Likewise Party B’s plans have negative consequences. But I think you vastly overestimate how much voters look at actual policy / plans. More will just look back at 10 years of scandals, crises, inflation, housing prices, etc., etc., and figure better to let someone else have a crack at it. “Insanity is voting the same over and over again and expecting different results”, to tweak a saying.
>The Cons, so far, have failed to make a practical case as to why they should be in power. They have no platform other than “we hate Justin”
Yup. But that’s a sufficient platform, lamentably.
Joey 09:47 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
@Kate I was reminded that one year ago the federal Liberals were basically tied in the polls with the Conservatives – it wasn’t COVID that has sunk Trudeau, it’s inflation and the housing crisis, which are perceived as being so terrible that even recent good news (inflation is coming down, the Bank of Canada is cutting rates, etc.) aren’t altering the perception that making ends meet is simply too hard.
@Tim S. I’m more willing to give government leaders everywhere for how they managed the very early stages of COVID; few things in governance are actually unprecedented – and this was one of them. The federal Liberals, who are not responsible for health systems or long-term care contagion management, did pretty well all things considered: generous and quick financial support to keep demand up and ensure that Canadians suddenly out of work had cash coming in, aggressive pursuit of large quantities of vaccines, etc.
IMO if inflation doesn’t happen (and a portion of the blame certainly lies with the federal government), I think Trudeau has a decent shot at another minority. Ironically JT’s stranglehold on the power within the LPC – there’s no Paul Martin organizing behind his back – means that there’s no obvious replacement in sight. None of the prominent Liberals (Freeland, Anand, Champagne, Joly, etc.) have any meaningful base of independent power within the party. We’ve been hyped for Mark Carney for, what, 15 years? How exactly is a central banker supposed to live up to the expectations?
Kevin 12:43 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
A poll by Mainstreet for the riding has the Liberals at 26%, the Bloc at 24%, and the NDP at 23%.
Anton 13:23 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Well I for one wish Craig Sauvé good luck!
Ian 13:33 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Yeah let’s hope the sexual assault scandal that got him turfed from PM and put another black mark on Plante’s feminist bona fides doesn’t come up, eh?
I always vote NDP so I’m glad not to live in the sud-ouest and have to deal with that crisus of conscience.
Tee Owe 14:21 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Also with Anton on this – his U-turn reneging on electoral reform strongly (negatively) influences my vote – not going for Cons so has to be NDP
Kate 20:00 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Here we go. The only purpose of the NDP for most of my voting life has been to split the centre‑left vote because the Liberals are so imperfect.
Ian 22:16 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Since when are the Liberals centre left?
carswell 22:29 on 2024-07-24 Permalink
Point taken, Kate. OTOH we wouldn’t find ourselves in this position if Trudeau hadn’t axed the promised electoral reform. Are we to reward that blatant lie and let ourselves be manipulated into voting Liberal instead of our conscience?
CE 07:26 on 2024-07-25 Permalink
If the NDP didn’t exist, I likely wouldn’t vote Liberal instead. I rarely vote for anyone who wins but at least my vote gives the Liberal candidates who do win a little bit of a scare. Also, in a democracy, more choice is better than less.