More than 2 million have had Covid: Boileau
Our new medical overlord Luc Boileau dropped a bombshell Wednesday, saying that more than 2 million Quebecers have had Covid since the beginning of December, and that is why we must stop worrying and learn to love the virus.
Alain Vadeboncœur, who usually writes for l’Actualité, posted a piece in response asking how Boileau got this number, but concluding that if it is true, then the virus really has thinned out to the point where many of us are infected without knowing it.
Update: Footnotes from the news: Prince Charles has caught Covid a second time and Governor-General Mary Simon also has it. (Francophone media are rather more prone to running items on the royal family, something I’ve noticed for a long time but can’t account for.)
MarcG 10:33 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Waiting for Me Mom & Morgentaler to drop their new single Everybody’s Got COVID
Joey 10:49 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Now imagine if more than 42% of Quebecers had received their third dose (which, it seems, is the one – based on its recency, I gather – that makes Omicron effectively little more than a nuisance). Data here and as of January 30: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/.
If only the government would make concrete plans to extend the vaccine passport to cover booster doses and automatically pre-booked appointments for another booster six months after a person’s last shot. The sooner we conclude that for the foreseeable future we’re going to need everyone to have a recent-ish booster dose, the better.
Bert 11:12 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Joey, not sure what you mean by the third shot extending to vaccine passport. A third shot is displayed in the passport, of course if you have it. If you mean that the third being required where passports are required e.g big-box stores and the like, then that is another way to interpret it.
mare 11:25 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Remember that they stopped doing general population PCR tests? Instead they tested Heath Care Workers hospital patients (and probably some other groups) *every couple of days*, whether they had symptoms or not. (Anecdata: I had 5 (!) PCR tests during my 2 weeks of being admitted, presumably all negative.)
If, over 2 months, 25 or even 30% of those people tested positive, which is not an outrageous percentage, and you apply that to Québec’s total population it’s easy to extrapolate that 20% of us has had an infection with SARS-CoV-2 (Omicron or Delta) during those months. (Percentage corrected down because HCWs have a higher infection risk, they don’t work from home, travel more and due to lower socioeconomic status (we don’t pay them a lot) live in more crowded environments.)
Still, that 20% leaves an enormous quantity of people who haven’t been infected yet, so Omicron still has a nice pool of fresh victims to replicate in. Slowly but steadily, until it has also reached most people who shouldn’t get infected.
Getting out of this will be hard, both physically and mentally. There’s a big split in society: Why did we go to all that trouble staying home when suddenly everything is declared fine and can be opened now? Versus: Why did we get restricted so much when nothing happened (hospitals are still standing; and I don’t know anybody who had serious Covid.) and we can open up so fast now?
Joey 11:26 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
@Bert, sorry for being unclear. What I meant was that the passport definition of “adequately protected” should mean three+ doses for all those who are eligible (basically everyone 12+). I’m sure there is some way to program it so that those who got their second dose late and are not yet eligible for the booster can be temporarily considered “adequately protected” (maybe on the condition they book an appointment). I think a lot of people who are vaccine hesitant won’t get their booster until their employer mandates it or their ability to enjoy daily life requires it.
Joey 11:29 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
@mare of the remaining 80%, many had COVID but either never got a rapid or PCR test or got a positive rapid test, and many more were exposed but never tested because of rapid test scarcity, lack of or mild symptoms, or both.
Kevin 11:50 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
@mare
A study out of Qatar indicates that Omicron doesn’t need a pool of fresh victims, because of all the variants, it provides the least protection against reinfection.
In other words, if you got Omicron, you’ve got almost a 50-50 chance of getting sick with Covid (even Omicron!) again.
The usual caveats about studies apply.
Joey 12:07 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
@kevin yeah my impression is that, while Omicron infection doesn’t create the same kind of immunity benefits as previous variants, the vaccines most certainly do – if you’ve had a dose recently. Again, anecdata, but the Omicron wave hit our household – one person tested positive with the most minor sniffles, one tested negative with a classic January cold and one person tested negative and felt nothing. The three of us will never be able to say with certainty whether we had COVID, so the two million infected figure at least doesn’t contradict our lived experience (not that it would be necessarily wrong if it did). The feeling around here is that (a) we’ll probably have more COVIDesque episodes going forward and (b) the level to which we have curtailed social behaviour in the last two years and especially recently doesn’t *feel like* it matches our own risk assessment. We’re not COVID deniers or truthers and we are extremely pro-vaxx, but it still feels like we are responding as if the only options are March 2020 panic or breathe-on-purpose-in-peoples’-faces.
steph 12:30 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
The restrictions were put in place to protect vulnerable people- not the healthy. There’s no place for healthy people’s Anecdata in the discussion.
dmdiem 13:10 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Protection against omicron due to previous variant infection or vaccination is low. Which is why we see equally high levels of omicron infection in populations with high levels of previous infection or vaccination, versus populations of low levels of previous infection or vaccinations. In addition, populations with high levels of previous infection or vaccination showed lower levels of death compared to populations with low levels of previous infection or vaccination.
In other words… previous infection or vaccination does not provide protection against omicron infection. It does, however, provide good protection against death from omicron.
Conversely, Infection from omicron provides excellent protection against all previous variants. We can see this by the fact that omicron has completely outcompeted all other variants with no new outbreaks of previous variants in populations that were exposed to omicron.
To put it another way… omicron is vaccinating the planet.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus is your friend.
Joey 14:48 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
@dmdiem vaccination doesn’t just protect against death – even if it’s negligible at stopping infection, it’s all good news from there, no? You’re as likely to get COVID if you’re up to date on your vaccine, but you’ll have milder symptoms, very small chance of hospitalization and basically no chance of death (exceptions of course for more vulnerable populations).
And @steph the restrictions were put in place to protect the healthcare system – vulnerable people are, as ever, left to their own devices when not politicially expedient to showcase the collateral benefits they get, protectionwise.
j2 16:04 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Re: booster for passport, I’m delaying my third because a positive PCR test (plus antigen tests) in late December and science (well Canada and CDC and not Quebec) say 3 months will produce a better protection outcome.
(I still have not recovered 100%. December I ran 12k and a 5’34”/km pace, best I’ve done since is 6’20” on a 5k and my heart rate is about 10-15bpm higher. Basically slower and worse than when I first started running 14 months ago. The extreme cold has definitely limited activity though, but more than it would have when I had clean lungs.)
Chris 16:29 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
>What I meant was that the passport definition of “adequately protected” should mean three+ doses for all those who are eligible (basically everyone 12+).
In addition to what j2 said, last I checked, for younger age groups the risk of heart issues from a booster is actually estimated to be worse than the risk of covid.
dmdiem 16:33 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
@Joey… As far as I know, the UK is the only country that has a symptom tracking system in place. I haven’t dug into that data so I can’t really say if being vaccinated reduces symptoms of omicron. Sorry. I just don’t know.
Pierre-Luc 16:44 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
25% of all Quebecers had covid and only a tiny fraction got sick. Omicron is so scary!
Tim S. 17:20 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Chris: that kind of statement is really, really irresponsible without a reference.
Chris 18:48 on 2022-02-10 Permalink
Tim S., sure, here you go:
https://podcast.apple.com/ca/podcast/this-week-in-virology/id300973784?i=1000545396455 (especially around 44 minutes in)
https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/healthpolicy/96635
If you are a healthy young male, IMHO *mandating* a third dose for participation in society (the topic I was replying about) is a step too far. Having two doses will very likely keep a young person out of hospital, and thus not burden the rest of society much, and so further health choices should really side more to individual choice.
Tim S. 09:01 on 2022-02-11 Permalink
Thanks Chris. I don’t have time to listen to a 44 minute + podcast, but I’ll note that your second link says nothing about the risk of heart conditions from vaccines.