Billions in economic benefits?
The C.D. Howe Institute says that the proposed high-speed rail line – they’re calling it Alto – would generate billions in economic benefits over the ensuing decades.
I can’t see how that works, even if some of the interprovincial trade barriers are removed.
Joey 14:49 on 2025-02-21 Permalink
Interesting that CD Howe, a right-of-centre think tank if there ever was one, posits things like lower GGEs, time saved and reduced traffic congestion as concrete benefits of this project. I certainly agree, but it’s nice to get some validation from the conservative end of things in this case – many on the right have more of a knee-jerk reaction to anything that isn’t get in your gas guzzler and drive.
Blork 16:16 on 2025-02-21 Permalink
I’m no expert, but I suspect part of it is something like this:
Today, if you spend $100 on dinner in Montreal and your cousin in Toronto spends $100 on dinner, that’s $200 spent in restaurants but it’s not recorded as “economic benefits of the train” because the train doesn’t exist.
10 years from now (ha!) if you and your cousin in Toronto do a house swap and use the train to get to the respective cities, and you then spend $100 on dinner in Toronto and your cousin spends $100 on dinner in Montreal, that is recorded as +$100 in Toronto due to the train, and +$100 in Montreal due to the train, for a total benefit of $200 due to the train.
Of course in real money spent it’s zero sum, but when categorized it becomes a benefit within the category.
That’s not to say all of the benefits are statistical gas clouds like that, but some of it likely is (because: statistics).
Kate 17:18 on 2025-02-21 Permalink
How would you even track that theoretical expense though, given that it’s in the same currency?
JaneyB 18:41 on 2025-02-21 Permalink
The real moneymaker (for some people…) would be a huge increase in the cost of housing for Montrealers. We would have house prices like they have in Toronto – for sure! I note that the extension of the Hwy 407 from Toronto into Peterborough **doubled** the house prices within 5 years and destroyed rental vacancies altogether. I don’t see much of an upside for people who take the train 3 times a year to the GTA….basically a savings of 3 hours altogether. Interesting concept but terrible consequences for most people.
Joey 19:37 on 2025-02-21 Permalink
@Blork I didnt read their study but it wasn’t in the news summary so I doubt that’s what they’re thinking. That kind of “economic impact” is indeed bullshit (for the most part) and I doubt CD Howe would suggest otherwise, at least in this case.
@JaneyB apples and oranges – one is daily use infrastructure, the other is intercity travel. Is the idea Torontonians will buy up Montreal so they can commute?
qatzelok 13:58 on 2025-02-22 Permalink
Janey, I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Are you saying that infrastructure improvements might make our cities more desirable?
That high rents means that no transit projects should get built?
Wouldn’t the train make travel a lot more accessible for ordinary people?