Now it’s up to us
François Cardinal is dead on the money here: it’s not on the government or the health authorities to end the pandemic: it’s on us. We know what we have to do. We don’t need to check what colour the alert is at before we go out, or count how many visitors we should have, and from how many households. Government is going to be cautious because it doesn’t want a revolt on its hands, and it’s going to get fussy and bureaucratic, because that’s what government does.
We need to stay home, not go out needlessly, and not have visitors come by, and put up with this till we’re through this thing, or it will drag on and on. If we want to win back to something resembling pre-Covid times, we can’t wait to be nannied through it. We just have to grit our teeth and see it out.
John B 13:31 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
Counterpoint: Clear guidelines & restrictions make it easier for individuals and smaller groups to take action.
For example, my son is playing soccer this summer, he had a game this morning. If players don’t show up for games maybe there aren’t enough players to play and the team automatically loses, dropping in the standings. If the club decides it’s not safe to play and pulls all its teams it has to pay fines to the league. If the league decides to shut down maybe they have to pay fines to Soccer Quebec, and so on up the chain. If there was a clear guideline that we should or should not be playing we could stop without letting down our teammates and/or financial penalties for the club.
I’m sure there’s a similar system at play in other areas. Small businesses & restaurants probably don’t have the finances to just decide to shut down, but if it’s a forced shutdown maybe there will be help for them. If people just stay home those businesses have to stay open for no customers.
Yes, we need to stay home. But it would be a lot easier if pressure to go out was removed.
Chris 14:10 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
It’s a delusion to think we can “end the pandemic”. (Assuming you meant that literally.) It’s a force of nature, and we can at best manage/mitigate it. And we are, and we have been. The cost of stopping it 100% is just too high.
Kate 14:27 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
Then it will drag on and on.
Ephraim 17:34 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
Humanity has managed to actually END several pandemics (smallpox and diseases, though, at the moment with the rampant anti-vax people, it’s difficult. I mean, measles was almost eradicated in the Americas until the anti-vaxxers ensured it’s revival. That being said, there is no guarantee that we can even find a vaccine. And if we can’t, we will have to go for herd immunity and a lot of dead people. Diseases that vaccines have eradicated or almost eradicated… Polio, Tetanus, Rubella, Whooping Cough, Mumps, Rotavirus, Diphtheria, Chickenpox and Smallpox. In the case of Smallpox, the last naturally occurring case was in 1977. You can check this list with the CDC, Wikipedia or many other sources. Polio is still considered a problem in 2 countries which don’t vaccinate for it properly. In fact, when I went to a country NEXT to one of them, the Quebec government suggested that I get the booster for Polio. In 2018, there were 33 wild case of Polio (Afghanistan and Pakistan) and 104 cases related to the vaccines. Last case of Polio in the Americas was in 1991.
There is a few articles on the subject written by epidemiologists. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-could-end1/
for example, is one of them. The whole social distance thing will eventually give way to herd immunity, from my understanding of the articles, but at a hospitalization and death rate that is more manageable… remember Italy and Spain when hospitalizations exceeded ability to handle it? I’m not an expert, which is why I link articles.
Meezly 18:13 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
We got a dinner invite today which we had to decline. It was really hard not say, dude. Like WTF?
Kate 18:52 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
Ephraim, were any of the eradicated or nearly-eradicated diseases coronaviruses?
Meezly: I know. Smart to stay away.
Uatu 19:23 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
People don’t care. It’s all abstract until it happens to them. If covid killed outright then there’d be no cheating the rules or doubts about it. They need to do what they’re doing in Indonesia- making covid rulebreakers dig the graves of covid victims
Phil M 22:41 on 2020-09-26 Permalink
Most people will not do anything beyond the bare minimum required by law. And even then it’s tough to get compliance. You’d think they would, but the evidence is clear that they will not.
Hopefully the winter cold will stop a lot of people from taking needless risks, but we need clear rules, and stiff enforcement either way, because depending on the populace to do what’s right is a losing proposition.
JP 00:11 on 2020-09-27 Permalink
I’d be curious to know the source of new cases…are they stemming from primary schools or high schools? Irresponsible young adults? Cases in CHSLDs? (The information is probably out there, I just haven’t bothered to look yet).
I don’t think I needlessly go out…but my friend coming over to my backyard tomorrow for lunch. I need it…for my mental health. I’ve already started grinding my teeth during the pandemic, my heart sometimes starts to race..I’m feeling anxious as are many others. That doesn’t mean I need to go to some big party, but I do need to see a friend in person from time to time. There’s a safe way, I think, to still have one’s social needs met. Unfortunately, as mentioned above most people will not do anything beyond the bare minimum required by law. Maybe the 80/20 principle applies here too.
I see both sides of this. I definitely agree we need to make a collective effort…but I also agree that this is a force of nature. We can help mitigate it but, viruses being what they are (e.g., capable of mutating etc), we’re going to have to put up with this for a while, unless all of the countries on the earth agree to stop everything for a few months together. And even then…
International travel also adds a layer of complexity to all of this…and I have been hearing and seeing planes, so there’s certainly some movement. (and let’s face it…I’ve heard those thermometers they take the temperature with aren’t really reliable and cases don’t always present with fever, not to mention those who are asymptomatic…)
Dhomas 03:13 on 2020-09-27 Permalink
My brother-in-law cancelled his daughter’s 10 year birthday party yesterday. It would only have been my family and his, but we thought it better not to take chances.
Meanwhile, my backyard neighbour had his “end of summer” party yesterday, as planned. Usually, he would have had it in his backyard so guests can use the pool, but this year they stayed inside, I assume so neighbours wouldn’t notice and call the cops. They are not yet in the “at-risk” age group, but getting close to it (in their 50’s, I think, but I’m bad at gauging age).
It’s really frustrating to see. I’m relatively young and healthy. Chances are I wouldn’t die of this virus. But I do my best to protect others. It angers me to see people (like my neighbours) so blatantly flouting the recommendations.
@JP: about the sources of the new cases. I know correlation is not causation, but cases started to explode again in September, just after school started. I would be very surprised if the data DIDN’T show schoolchildren as being a vector for transmission.
Kate 09:16 on 2020-09-27 Permalink
Dhomas: https://www.lesoleil.com/opinions/caricatures/la-caricature-de-cote-aac58a4de1f8904e9e414a5bb120b137
JP, I saw a list somewhere, although I don’t recall right now if it applied here or elsewhere. I’ll post it if I find it.
…OK! Got it. Not here, but Quebec City, so not exactly here but might be interesting. Les Perreaux has a tweet where he extracted the numbers from this piece in Le Soleil on September 24:
Quebec City got a rare snapshot of the source of its 50 or so outbreaks one day last week.
Workplaces: 20ish
Seniors’ homes: 9
Bars and restos: 8
Schools: 6
Adult learning: 2
Resort: 1
Sports: 1
Church: 1
Also, commenting on your observations about travel, I’ve a friend who felt flu-ish last week so I suggested he go get tested. While lined up for the test, he had the impression that several parties around him were getting tested preparatory to travelling out of the country. He and I were both a little shocked by this.
Mark Côté 15:34 on 2020-09-27 Permalink
I keep reading that gatherings of friends and families are the number one source of new infections, e.g. from some epidemiologist at McGill. The number of new cases is largest in the age group from 20 to 40. Occurrences at schools, at least in Montreal, seem to still be scattered. Lots of reports of infections but not many clusters.
Ephraim 19:25 on 2020-09-27 Permalink
Kate: From my understanding, Coronaviruses include the common cold, MERS, and SARS. This is actually the second SARS. But there has never been a vaccine for any Coronaviruses. For the most part, from what I read, other than the cold, there are a total of 7 CoronaViruses that have passed to humans, with 4 being mild (AKA the common cold) and the other 3 being MERS, SARS and SARS2 (aka Covid-19). There have been a few vaccines for Coronaviruses in Animals.
In the Herpes family, we have managed to create some vaccines, chickenpox and shingles. And there are a number of viruses that we haven’t been able to kill, we have found treatments or we live with them. There is no cure, but there are treatments for HIV, Herpes.
Viruses are the problem. It’s the least explored of medical sciences. It’s the most interesting part of the future of medicine at the moment. Being conquered slowly… until… well… this one got out of hand. We should have invested the money when HIV started… as a warning that untreatable viruses were coming.
If you want to invest in this future, the biggest players are Gilead, the GSK, AbbVie, J&J, Sino, Merck, B-MSquibb, Aurobindo, Arbutus and Roche. But there are many small companies. Moderna is well into phase 3, for example.
The NYT has a tracker on these vaccines… https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html We can see quite a few are in phase 3. This is faster than we have ever developed a vaccine. And we can see a number that have gone into wide phase 3… experimental access to the public, like the Russian vaccine. And there were a few discussions.
And finally, the US is playing games… like pulling out of WHO. Canada, like many countries has invested and bought vaccines even though they may not work, because that’s how you fund the research. Even if they don’t work, they may discover other things that work.
mare 20:35 on 2020-09-27 Permalink
With the high percentage of cases in the US, the phase 3 studies that take place in the US might be much shorter than normal for a virus. Maybe that’s why Trump et al don’t do much to stop the spread.
If you have 30,000 people in your research group, of which 15,000 are vaccinated and 15,000 are not, you need a certain number of infections in both groups to determine if the vaccine works. If the vaccine is very effective you would only see infections in the control group. Subsequently you have to follow the vaccinated people that showed an immune response and see how long it takes before their immunity response wanes off. Then you know how long your vaccine works and if people have to be re-vaccinated every x month or years. So yeah, phone 3 trials take long and are expensive. If their are some people getting serious side effects you might even need to cancel the trial.
I don’t think it’s considered ethical to infect volunteers on purpose to speed up the process, but I read somewhere it has been done in certain countries.