Your mayoral vote
Your mayoral vote on November 2?
- Craig Sauvé (62%, 106 Votes)
- Luc Rabouin (28%, 48 Votes)
- Soraya Martinez Ferrada (5%, 8 Votes)
- Can't be bothered (3%, 5 Votes)
- Other (2%, 3 Votes)
- Will spoil ballot (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 170
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Jim 16:23 on 2025-10-23 Permalink
It looks like Rabouin and Sauvé will split the vote and open up path for Ferrada to become mayor. I guess we’ll wait and see.
DeWolf 16:44 on 2025-10-23 Permalink
I think the only thing that is certain about the mayoral race is that it’s completely up for grabs. Sauvé will split Rabouin’s vote, but Thibodeau has been performing way more strongly than anyone expected and he will eat some chunk of SMF’s vote. There has only been one reliable poll conducted this entire campaign (the recent Radio-Canada one) and it shows Thibodeau with twice as much support as Sauvé. I’m not sure if that should be a surprise or not given how much wacko politics have become prominent in recent years.
And of course it all depends on turnout. Low overall turnout benefits Rabouin, because PM-dominated boroughs historically have higher turnout than EM-dominated boroughs. If EM finds a way to boost turnout in its strongholds, Soraya could benefit, otherwise she’s at a disadvantage.
Ian 21:14 on 2025-10-23 Permalink
I would love to see a poll by borough. Without knowing that much it’s pretty much useless to have a poll.
That said there was only 38.32% voter turnout for mayoral vote in the the 2021 election so it could go anywhere.
Of all the voting districts looking at the record there are some very low turnout PM winners and very high turnout Ensemble winners. Also, some PM like Joseph-Beaubien (60.55% turnout) were high, but others like J.-Émery-Provost are very low (31.74%). What I find more interesting is how most districts have a clear winner but then there are others where it’s super close, like Outremont that was nearlky 50/50. Claude-Ryan is pretty safe for PM, but Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve only won with 51.24% andf Joseph-Beaubien only won with 43%. Similarly,, Ensemble will probably be a shoo-in in Montreal Nord but they only won Jeanne-Sauvé with 41.39% …
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/municipal-election-results/MUN_66023/15206/
Joey 10:00 on 2025-10-24 Permalink
Best case scenario for Projet is probably something like a SMF victory with PM controlling council (and winning key borough mayoral races). Why anyone would want to be mayor given the economic context & the likelihood that the anti-Montreal CAQ will be replaced by an anti-Montreal PQ in Quebec City is beyond me. If PM can hold on to council it can probably prevent SMF from undoing some of the progress it’s made (e.g., REV) without having to own whatever lousy decisions are on the way…
walkerp 10:59 on 2025-10-24 Permalink
Rabouin will win with a decent margin.
Ian 11:42 on 2025-10-24 Permalink
Plante only won with 52% on a low voter turnout, and Rabouin is less popular than Plante. You might be right, but that’s not a safe bet.
Ian 11:53 on 2025-10-24 Permalink
https://sketchplanations.com/sampling-bias