Quebec unveils second wave plan
Quebec has unveiled its plan for coping with a second wave of Covid this fall. I listened to some of the presser on radio and they were heavily stressing that nobody would be allowed to work shifts at different CHSLDs. The shortage of CHSLD workers, forcing people to divide their shifts between locations, seems to have been a major reason for so many outbreaks in those establishments early on in the pandemic. Now they’ve trained a bunch more workers, so it shouldn’t be a concern.
DeWolf 18:31 on 2020-08-18 Permalink
There have been scary projections about a second wave being even worst than the first, but I just don’t see how that would be possible. We know so much more about the virus than we did back in March and now we’re all in the habit of wearing masks, washing our hands frequently and keeping distances when and where we can. Maybe I’m being naïve but at this point we know what to expect. I guess we’ll see how countries like Italy and France handle their current resurgence in cases.
Raymond Lutz 19:18 on 2020-08-18 Permalink
“There have been scary projections about a second wave being even worst than the first, but I just don’t see how that would be possible.”
Simple: mutations. For now, mutation D614G ONLY resulted in an increased transmissibility. We can only hope that no mutation will increase its lethality (and hope in the works vaccines will still confer immunity)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-korber-mutation.html
Kevin 22:32 on 2020-08-18 Permalink
People are complacent.
Only half of us are maintaining distance, washing hands, and wearing masks when distancing is not possible.
http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020.08.16_COVID-Compliance-Index.pdf
Looking at Italy is partially why Quebec did so poorly at handling the outbreak—they failed to take different family structures into account.
Daniel 07:23 on 2020-08-19 Permalink
Thanks for linking to that, Kevin. That looks very interesting.
DeWolf 10:23 on 2020-08-19 Permalink
That’s super interesting, Kevin, thanks. A few points:
1. 48% of people in Quebec are very serious about hygiene measures, and another 35% are inconsistent in the precautions they take, but they still take precautions. That’s 83%. If this same survey had been done in March, that number would have been zero. Nobody wore a mask, nobody kept their distance, nobody limited their travel and I’m sure many people weren’t very strict about hand-washing. We didn’t those things because we simply weren’t aware the virus was already circulating amongst us. In retrospect, we were all cynical spreaders. Now less than 18% of people take no precautions whatever, which is a lot less than the 100% back in March.
2. The survey doesn’t take into the account mask laws. A number of the people in the “inconsistent” group say that weren’t wearing masks indoors; now they don’t have a choice. Even most of the “cynical spreaders” are wearing masks indoors, given reports of 90%+ compliance with the indoor mask mandate.
3. Mandatory indoor masks seems to have had a big impact as the number of new cases and the positive testing rate have plummeted since the law came into effect. That’s a weapon we didn’t have back in March.
My point isn’t that there will not be a second wave. With this virus it seems inevitable that there will be multiple waves. What I’m saying is that it is unlikely we will see the same devastation as in March/April because we have the tools and information it takes to keep the number of serious cases and deaths at bay.
GC 22:38 on 2020-08-19 Permalink
DeWolf, I’m 100% behind the mask laws and think we probably should have had them even earlier. However, didn’t we go from 100-200 new cases per day to under 100 cases per day? Is it really reasonable to say the rates “plummeted”? (Unless you are basing it on something else…)
Kevin 23:10 on 2020-08-19 Permalink
There are MANY exceptions to people wearing masks indoors: the tens of thousands of children about to return to class and their teachers; people who work in an office; people in restaurants and bars.
If we had everybody (especially students!) doing daily health checks before they left home I’d be optimistic, but instead we are turning everyone into cynical spreaders
DeWolf 10:01 on 2020-08-20 Permalink
@GC: The week the mask law came into effect we hit a high of 189 new cases. This week we hit a low of 42 new cases. If we’re playing semantics, I would argue that a 77% reduction in daily new cases in three weeks can indeed be described as “plummeting.” I know correlation does not equal causation but that seems like strong evidence to me that masks are having a big impact.
@Kevin: Masks work in conjunction with other measures. Office workers are required to maintain a 2m distance. You don’t need a mask while you’re eating or drinking because tables are meant to be spaced out far enough from each other that the risk of transmission between them is low. Classes operate as bubbles and students/teachers are required to wear masks when they aren’t in the classroom.
I’m not defending these particular measures, but you make it sound like a free-for-all and that isn’t the case at all. I know it’s human nature to always expect the worst, but there’s no reward for being unduly pessimistic.
Kevin 11:27 on 2020-08-20 Permalink
DeWolf
My wife (MD, PhD, extensive career in biochemistry/virology/vaccine development before shifting into medicine) is evaluating the Covid-19 measures proposed by several schools and lemme just say — I think my cynicism is warranted.
There are a lot of authorities who just do not understand what is going on, who think you can cut corners and still be okay.
It’s human nature to be complacent about this type of unseen, microscopic threat. The only way we’re going to defeat it is through discipline and enforcement — and it takes time and encouragement to develop positive habits.
Meanwhile it only takes one person being irresponsible to expose thousands.
Kate 13:23 on 2020-08-20 Permalink
Kevin, I’ve seen people theorize that if Covid caused more obviously unpleasant or gross symptoms, measures against it would be more respected. But as it is, a lot of folks must be thinking they’re giving up a lot to stop something that’s not so terrible if you’re young and healthy to start with.
GC 22:06 on 2020-08-20 Permalink
Dewolf, yes, there is reason to suggest they are having an impact. Cases were starting to climb around the time the law was introduced, so it’s possible that they would have even continued to grow without the law. Masks are not the only factor, obviously, but it’s possible. To me it seems more like a gradual decline, but there’s we’re not going to get much more mileage out of a debate over the semantics of “plummeted”. I think we both agree that masks are a positive step and that most people are more careful about their hygiene habits these days.
There are always news stories about being breaking the rules, and I’m sure we’ve all witnessed some of that, but the fact is a lot of people are also following them and that’s going to help with the second wave.