WFH solves an unexpected problem
I was looking up something else in the blog archives, and was reminded that, not so long ago, people were worried about the REM construction in the Mount Royal tunnel and how it would make it difficult for suburbanites to commute to their downtown offices. Not so much any more.
I’m seeing articles both about how influenza could be naturally spiked by the distancing measures imposed for the pandemic, but also how a bad flu season could overwhelm hospitals if it coincided with a second wave of Covid. I prefer to be optimistic, and hope in future people will be saying “Do you remember colds and flu, and how they just stopped after 2020?”
Also, on thinking about it: haven’t had any religious proselytizers at the door either. Also a plus.
Although… thinking again… I’ve recently had several of those recorded scare phone calls claiming to be from the federal government. I think the scammers are going to ramp those up as CERB ends and people get nervous about their right to financial aid.
mare 11:39 on 2020-08-30 Permalink
Guess who’s going to pay for the contractually guaranteed 15% Return-On-Investment the REM has to make? I wouldn’t be surprised the contract also has a guaranteed start date, wether the REM is running or not, to prevent delays by unknowns like construction problems, permits and legal challenges. You could say a pandemic is and “act of god” and is excluded, but since the contracts are secret we will never know. My prediction is that new transport tax is going to be straight into the coffers of CDPQ-Infra.
Spi 13:24 on 2020-08-30 Permalink
@mare that’s completely false and you’re spreading misinformation, there is no contractually guaranteed ROI of any sort attached to the REM project. If there is I’d love to see some source documents. What there is a concrete framework as to how any (if there is a profit) ROI will be split up amongst the parties involved the first tranche (I believe 9%) goes entirely to CDPQI, I’m a bit fuzzy on the details for the tranches above the first one, the second tranche it is split between CDPQI, Qc and Fed government (in a 50/25/25 share I believe, potentially up to 15% which may be the source of this figure) and the third tranche (Excess of 15%) would be split 50/50 between Qc and Fed.
The closest thing that resembles a guaranteed ROI in place is the fee that the ARTM will be paying la caisse per passenger-km.
mare 00:01 on 2020-08-31 Permalink
@spi My percentages are probably off, it’s been a while. But taking the first 9% of the profits and getting 70 cents per passenger kilometre (current cost is 30 cents for the Deux-Montagne line) sounds to me like a guaranteed ROI. And I’m very curious (and sceptical) if the losses will be carried by CDPQI, or just transferred to the Quebec Government e.g. the tax payers.
This project just stinks on so many levels that I’m sure there will be surprises along the way. But maybe I’m wrong, time will tell.
Regular commenter Anton Dubrau wrote a lot about it over the years, if people want to refresh their memory.
http://www.cat-bus.com/category/rem/
ant6n 04:49 on 2020-08-31 Permalink
Not a guaranteed ROI, but in practice there will be a very high ROI, based on the high fees the REM will get per passenger-km (more than double of the old, inefficiently operated commuter rail line), plus the various extra income like development taxes etc. The tranches relate to the distribution of profits of the REM: the governments and the CDPQ both “paid” about half for the project and thus get a 50.5% vs 49.5% split on ownership (although that is already a lie, because the government shovelled all sorts of money and assets towards the project without getting equity in return – like the deux-montagnes line, at a fraction of its value). At the same time most of the profits go to the Caisse, because suppossedly they`re taking on more “risk” somehow. Anyway, the whole scheme, is about funneling infrastructure and public transit spending towards the Caisse. We´ll get a suburban-centric mini-metro in return, which isn´t terrible, but the system could`ve been designed to serve many more people, and it is very expensive in the long run.
Whatever happened to the story about the airport REM station, didn’t the airport say they couldn’t afford it anymore or something?
Kate 08:55 on 2020-08-31 Permalink
ant6n, in June the airport was begging for a handout to build the spur.
Uatu 10:34 on 2020-08-31 Permalink
The non compete clause to cross the Champlain bridge means there’s a guaranteed ROI. Everyone using south shore transit will be funneled to the train station so the new fare increase is effectively a tax/toll for South Shore residents anyways
ant6n 17:10 on 2020-08-31 Permalink
As an aside, it seems they used to say they’ll begin operating the South Shore branch in 2020. Now their website says “a representative segment will be implemented on the South Shore in late 2020.” I wonder what this means: will they only have for example some sort of a shuttle going back and forth between two South Shore stations, and only on Sunday afternoons? It’s a funny wording that sounds like they want to manage expectations, while still formally opening the line in 2020, for _some_ sort of operation.