Aaron Derfel stats du soir
Anyone want to check out this gloomy Aaron Derfel thread on the state of Covid in Montreal?
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Raymond Lutz 06:18 on 2020-10-23 Permalink
No , thanks. I prefer this Zac Labe thread about Arctic ocean not refreezing.
Jonathan 09:37 on 2020-10-23 Permalink
nah
Faiz imam 11:15 on 2020-10-23 Permalink
I follow Aaron regularly, and while I value the data he communicates, I find he goes out of his way to have a pessimistic view.
Often that is valuable, but sometimes there is data that is pretty neutral and doesn’t mean much, good or bad. But he really reaches to make it sound bad.
I tend to skim his tweets when I see them.
Ian 11:17 on 2020-10-23 Permalink
How is “Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that’s higher than the tallies of Greece (28,216) and Hong Kong (5,281) combined” gloomy or pessimistic? Those are facts, not some conspiracy to promote bummers.
DeWolf 12:01 on 2020-10-23 Permalink
That’s a classic example of Derfel’s habit of making arbitrary and irrelevant comparisons that do nothing to enlighten readers or provide context. What do those numbers mean? Nothing except that the epidemic in Montreal is worse than some places and better than others.
Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that’s higher than the tallies of Uruguay (2,701), South Korea (25,698) and Barbados (224) combined.
Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that is less than 1/20th the tally of the United Kingdom (813,451), multiplied by half the tally of Madagascar (357), minus the tallies of Brazil (5,323,630), Russia (1,453,923) and Chile (442,164).
Another example of what I stopped reading Derfel’s threads: awhile back, he praised the Hong Kong government’s response to the coronavirus without looking at any local coverage that has highlighted how that response has been highly problematic. It was cherry picking not so different in style from the random numbers he uses to fluff up his threads.
Ian 16:27 on 2020-10-23 Permalink
Comparisons of scale aren’t irrelevant, a lot of people really have very little sense of the rest of the world outside of Quebec. Point taken on the +HK thing but datapoints are constantly shifting so it’s pretty hard for someone doing analysis not to slip up a little here and there – overall he’s done a job nobody else is willing to touch for fear of inciting the wrath of Legault. I appreciate it, anyhow. It’s certainly more meaningful than the vague information we receive from Arruda & his crew.