Patterns may shift in fall election
Pollster Jean-Marc Léger thinks Montreal ridings are up for grabs in the Quebec election this fall. Traditionally a PLQ stronghold, the city may be pulled away from that party by voter dissatisfaction, besides the loss of many familiar PLQ MNAs who have announced their intention not to run again.
Ian 11:47 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
Not trusting Anglade and her merry band of fools to actually help anyone (let alone MTL Anglos & Allophones) is a safe bet, but it’s quite a stretch to assume that we will all start voting for ethnonationalist parties that openly hate Montreal.
Mr.Chinaski 11:49 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
Holness is going to split the PLQ anglo vote, meaning that places like Verdun, Lachine, St-Leonard, etc.. is going to be CAQ territory for the next 4 years
Joey 12:09 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
Wait, Balaram Holness, who got thirty thousand votes in the Montreal municipal election last year (out of 400K+ cast), is going to split a bunch of ridings such that the CAQ picks up a bunch of seats in Montreal? Take an example, like Verdun. Leaving aside the fact that it’s gone Liberal sice its creation in 1966, the Liberal candidate beat the QS candidate by 3,500 votes (12 percentage points, a full 50% more than the QS candidate got). The CAQ finished third, a good 15 percentage points behind the Liberal. Do you relaly think Holness will be a major factor in this election, especially when traditionally Liberal Montreal ridings will come out en masse against the Legault government? And, if so, wouldn’t that pave the way for QS to stake some more claims in Montreal? QS often finished second ahead of the CAQ in 2018.
Mr.Chinaski 14:52 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
According to QC125, even QS has no chance against the CAQ in places likes Verdun. Ridings with half francos and half anglos will make the PLQ suffer even 2-3% if only votes for Holness, look at the close margins at QC125
Joey 15:04 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
Meh, riding-level projections at this stage are highly volatile. Holness doesn’t even have a party and isn’t considered in the QC125 projections (that you claim validate the position that Holness will throw a bunch of ridings from the PLQ to the CAQ). Anyway, a 2-3% swing in 2018 would’ve had the Liberals win by, what, six points instead of 12? TBD I guess…
Kate 18:34 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
Joey, I agree – projections will be pretty vague until the rentrée when campaigning starts in earnest. Beyond predicting that the west end of the island will grit their teeth and continue voting PLQ, and that Québec solidaire will pick up a couple more seats midtown, I wouldn’t go further.
Kevin 23:22 on 2022-05-20 Permalink
Will letters with sugar sway voters? Will people complain about hearing English in hospitals? Will refugees be assimilated by the dark side?
It’s going to be a long hot eternity before election day, and the first real campaign for many party leaders.