Montreal City Weblog

Kate 08:51 on 2021-06-23 Permalink Reply  

• Chris 09:54 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  Covid deaths are now just about down to flu levels. In an average year 4000 to 8000 die of flu in Canada, which, if we assume is spread evenly, would be 900 to 1800 in Quebec (Quebec is 22% of Canada), which is 2.5 to 5 deaths a day. That’s right in line with Kate’s stats here showing 4 COVID deaths yesterday.

  Just as exponential growth was hard to wrap one’s head around at the beginning, exponential decay is also hard to wrap our heads around now.

• Tim S. 10:09 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  Hopefully one thing we’ve learned in the past year+ is how to keep flu deaths down in future.

  I’ve only had one real flu as a grown-up, but 15 years later I still have some aches and pains from that episode. For that reason the “it’s just a flu” narrative has been driving me nuts this entire time (never mind that COVID is much worse – does influenza normally kill 4 people a day in June?).

• Blork 10:57 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  A couple of things to keep in mind: with vaccinations up, and therefore serious illness from COVID down, it’s likely that fewer people are volunteering to get tested. (I.e., they don’t feel sick so they don’t get tested.)

  So those impressive numbers we’re seeing (+84 new cases in Quebec yesterday, etc.) are just the ones we know about because that many positives were found AMONG THE PEOPLE WHO WERE TESTED. In a CBC report last night a worker at a testing facility (I forget where) was saying that they’re mostly just seeing people who have mandated testing because of their jobs or travel.

  Also seen on CBC last night was a report from the UK, where the Delta variant is the main cause of COVID now, that symptoms have changed. People getting sick with Delta report headaches, runny nose, and sore throat as the main symptoms. Which makes my eyes pop open a bit given how many people I know in and around Montreal who have recently mentioned they “have a cold” but haven’t gotten tested because the symptoms are not consistent with (non-Delta) COVID.

• Nick 11:17 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  So your saying it’s possible those 85 people may not have even felt ill at all or just had a runny nose and headache? Is your point the vaccines are working as exactly as advertised?

• DeWolf 11:34 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  I saw the same report on CBC, Blork, and I can’t help but ask myself, if vaccines reduce Covid to something equivalent to the common cold… what’s the problem? If the fearsome Delta variant manifests itself in vaccinated people as a runny nose and slight headache, is it really worth freaking out over?

  Of course, the real problem is the 30% of the population that is completely unvaccinated. Even when you subtract ineligible people from the equation (ie, kids), there’s still 20% of people out there who don’t seem interested in having any protection whatsoever from this virus. They have a lot to be worried about. Vaccinated people, not so much.

• Kate 12:31 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  Summarizing from Wikipedia, while most colds are caused by rhinoviruses, a smaller percentage have always been caused by coronaviruses, although not by SARS-CoV-2 before 2020. I suppose SARS-CoV-2 could fizzle out as nothing more than one variant of the common cold.

• Blork 14:47 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  Regarding the question of “if vaccines reduce Covid to something equivalent to the common cold… what’s the problem?” I don’t know, I’m not an expert. But it does raise some possibilities, such as:

  It fizzles out for vaccinated people but is still a threat to more vulnerable people who might not be vaccinated (whether for legitimate reasons or not).

  The nasty Delta variant circulates widely because it is “not a problem” to vaccinated people, but in fact this is a Trojan horse and it’s just a matter of time before it spawns another variant that can beat the vaccines.

  The nasty Delta variant seems like it’s been tamed but possibly creates some kind of “long COVID” in many people but this doesn’t become obvious until six months or a year down the road when the vaccines start to wear off.

  I suppose my only point is that we should still be wary at least for the short- or medium-term keep some level of distancing and mask wearing. I’m NOT saying any of the above are probably going to happen, just that it’s POSSIBLE they might happen. Be aware the difference between THE VIRUS IS GONE and THE VIRUS JUST ISN’T KILLING US RIGHT NOW.

• Nick 15:24 on 2021-06-23 Permalink

  Most immunologists believe that COVID-19 will become endemic. Meaning, much like influenza, it will recur seasonally killing hundreds of thousands of people globally each year. Forever. That’s the realistic best case scenario.

• jeather 10:32 on 2021-06-24 Permalink

  The seasonal flu is probably the endemic version of the Spanish flu, so that’s likely what will happen for Covid — possibly taking turns in the winter with the cold and RSV and the flu (which already take turns), or possibly overlapping them, we don’t know yet.

  The next few flu seasons are also going to be interesting, because we didn’t really have one — they think maybe some strains have died out now — and guessing which will be big this year is going to be a new problem. Though with some luck, mRNA yearly flu shots will be good.

• Kate 09:42 on 2021-06-25 Permalink

  jeather, I’ve also seen claims that flu will get worse because, after two seasons of limiting contacts and staying away from sources of infection, our immunity may naturally have subsided to some extent.

  I guess we’ll see how this plays out.